In the 2019 federal election, the federal seat of Warringah was fiercely contested between a long-term Liberal favourite and a rising independent. In 2025, history is repeating itself, except this time, it’s in Bradfield. I have had the unexpected opportunity to live in both electorates during these two elections, and experience first hand the unexpected swing from Liberal to independent. What has become evident is that the Liberal strongholds of Sydney’s conservative North are turning ‘Teal’ — and it is exciting.
The 2019 election saw former Prime Minister Tony Abbott lose his seat of Warringah after representing the electorate for 25 years. Even prior to Abbott, Liberals had been dominating Bradfield, Warringah, and now-abolished North Sydney electorates. Since World War II, Warringah had only been represented by Liberals; in every election since, there was never any real doubt that a Liberal would lose the seat, until 2019.
Overnight, Mosman’s Military Road and Manly’s Pittwater Road were overrun with signs urging residents of the electorate to vote for ex-Olympian Zali Steggall. Steggall, whose signs were unmissable, represented herself as an independent — the teal colour on her posters unmistakably associating her with the ‘Teal’ campaign. Despite multiple smear campaigns from her conservative opponent, Steggall’s campaign survived until election night, where she won convincingly against Abbott.
Many found this win from Steggall to be surprising. However, living in Mosman at the time, I would thoroughly disagree. Steggall’s victory was not a surprise, nor was it unexpected. Warringah needed a change, and Steggall, with her climate focused and gender diverse mindset, was exactly what the Northern Sydney electorate needed. They needed a candidate that would dually represent the economic conservatism of the Baby Boomers, and the climate change progressivism of the millennials and Generation X. It is these characteristics that shape the teal movement, and that was how Steggall attracted the people and won the seat.
Now, six years on from the 2019 election, we’re once again facing a fierce contest between a Liberal and an independent on Sydney’s north side — but this time, in Bradfield.
Following the dissolution of the North Sydney electorate, many of the Lower North Shore suburbs, including Northbridge, Artarmon, and St Leonard’s, have been drawn into Bradfield’s borders. As such, with the addition of these new suburbs, and the unexpected retirement of former Liberal MP Paul Fletcher, Bradfield is changing.
Nicolette Boele, a North Shore local, is running for the seat of Bradfield, and she’s convincing. Although with hiccups, her popularity is high. Driving down the Pacific Highway, the ‘silk road’ of the North Shore, there is no doubt a teal sign of Nicolette Boele will be plastered on shop fronts or buoyed by supporters. The conservative electorate of Bradfield is being won over by an independent who favours financial and economic security and yet is able to appeal to the Generation Z and Millennial voters by simply not being a Liberal. Her association with the ‘Teal’ campaign is half her job already done.
Boele’s main opponent is Gisele Kapterian, the new Liberal candidate, replacing and endorsed by Paul Fletcher. Kapterian’s selection is nothing less than ironic: she is the daughter of migrant parents and a woman of colour — everything that the Liberal party does not stand for. Yet, that is exactly why she was chosen.
There are two folds to this point. Firstly, there is the theory of the glass cliff. Arguably, Kapterian has been chosen as the Liberal candidate as this is a time of crisis, since their Bradfield stronghold is in danger. If they lose this seat, the Liberal party can blame it on a woman, despite her gender having nothing to do with the loss. The second part is that they chose a woman to compete against Boele. The Liberals think that their chance of retaining the seat is higher if they can play the gender card. The Liberal party is renowned for being male dominated. Allowing one woman to run in one conservative seat is not going to change this mindset despite all their efforts.
However, the race between the two candidates is tight. The polls are changing daily and the percentages are staggeringly close. It will be a surprise whoever wins Bradfield. If Kapterian wins, it won’t only be unexpected to the residents, but also the Liberals. If Boele wins, there is one more socially progressive woman representing a changing electorate.
