The betting odds for Australia’s upcoming federal election tell a story far beyond mere predictions. Labor sits at a consistent $1.20 across all major platforms, while the Coalition trails at around $4.50. These numbers reveal something more profound than electoral forecasts: they disclose an industry that has mastered the art of political influence while evading meaningful regulation. The remarkably uniform odds across different bookmakers also highlight how sophisticated and interconnected Australia’s betting ecosystem has become.
I’m somewhat of a betting man myself. Last year, I put money on Kamala Harris in the United States election despite my political science training telling me Trump would likely win. As I watched my cash disappear, I experienced firsthand how emotion can override judgment in gambling. The cognitive dissonance was particularly striking given my understanding of political trends. But my personal loss pales compared to Australia’s collective gambling addiction, a $25 billion annual loss that our political system seems unwilling to address despite mounting evidence of widespread social harm.
The reluctance of both major parties to implement serious gambling reform is no accident. According to The Grattan Institute’s recent report, the gambling industry has positioned itself as one of Australia’s most powerful sectors. Political donations from gambling interests spike dramatically whenever reforms are proposed, a clear signal of how the industry protects its profits. The industry’s strategic timing of these donations reveals a sophisticated understanding of our political system’s pressure points.
With 8 per cent of state and territory tax revenue derived from gambling, governments themselves have become dependent on the very activity they should be regulating. This creates a perverse incentive structure where meaningful reform becomes politically risky. The relationship between gambling operators and political parties has evolved into a symbiotic arrangement that comes at the expense of public health. This dependency is particularly pronounced in states like NSW, where gambling tax revenues have become essential to budget calculations, creating a structural resistance to reform that transcends partisan politics.
The industry’s influence extends beyond mere donations. Gambling companies have developed sophisticated lobbying operations, strategic alliances with sports organisations, and media relationships that make them formidable opponents of reform. Their ability to mobilise quickly against regulatory threats, as demonstrated during the Gillard government’s failed attempt at pokies reform, has created a chilling effect on political will.
This political paralysis persists even as major industry players face collapse. Star Entertainment Group now teeters on the brink of financial oblivion, running out of cash and facing potential administration with 8,000 jobs at stake. This crisis follows years of regulatory failures and unchecked gambling harm, yet even this dramatic downfall hasn’t triggered substantive political action. The potential collapse of such a major operator paradoxically strengthens the industry’s political leverage, as governments now face the spectre of job losses and economic disruption if they pursue aggressive regulation.
The Australian Institute of Family Studies found that 64 per cent of Australians believe governments should play the biggest role in deciding how wagering is advertised, and 53 per cent support banning wagering advertising before 10:30 pm. Yet meaningful reform remains elusive as political donations flow and regulatory capture continues. This disconnect between public opinion and policy outcomes demonstrates how effectively the gambling industry has insulated itself from democratic pressures, creating an environment where even popular reforms struggle to gain political traction against industry resistance.
The human cost of this regulatory failure is staggering. A remarkable 73 per cent of Australian adults gambled at least once in the past year, with nearly half classified as being at risk of harm. Our nation holds the dubious honour of the highest gambling losses per capita globally. The Grattan Institute notes that exposure to wagering advertising prompted 21 per cent of people to start betting for the first time, 28 per cent to change what they bet on, and 34 per cent to increase their betting overall, which shows how the industry’s marketing machinery works to maximize losses.
As election day approaches, those consistent odds across betting platforms suggest Labor is strongly favoured. But, regardless of whether Labor or the Coalition wins the election, the odds of meaningful gambling reform remain frustratingly low. The real question isn’t which party will win the election, but whether either will finally stand up to an industry that has mastered the art of political influence while causing widespread harm. Until our political system values public health over gambling revenue and political donations, the house will continue to win, both at the betting table and in the halls of parliament.
And that’s a wager none of us should be willing to take.
